Overordnede kursusmål
The potential of decision analyses in Civil Engineering has already
been recognised in the 1970s (see Course Literature). However, it
took until recent years that decision analyses have attracted
attention across science, industry and governmental institutions.
Decision analyses maybe highly complex and require a sound
modelling of a decision process accounting for infrastructure
system state models and forecasts, the prediction and the effect of
actions and information together with the modelling of the
infrastructure life cycle functionality, consequences and costs.
Such decision process models are individually advanced within the
Civil Engineering research disciplines.
Decision analyses facilitate the integration of all decision
process models and thus the quantification and the optimisation of
a decision maker’s expected utilities before implementing a
decision. The decision maker’s expected utilities may comprise a
reduction of risks, maximising the functionality, sustainability,
resilience etc. and incorporate thus a clear potential to benefit
research, industry and society.
The course objective is to support the development and application
of decision analyses across Civil Engineering disciplines and
research. The specific aims of the course are:
(1) The provision of methods and tools to perform decision analyses
(2) The provision of an overview of decision analyses in research
and in practice
(3) To account for the Civil Engineering Department strategy with
varying foci in each year.
Læringsmål
En studerende, der fuldt ud har opfyldt kursets mål, vil kunne:
- Create and determine solutions for decision and Value of
Information optimality
- Evaluate decisions with the help of decision analyses before
and after implementation
- Structure a decision problem for application in the specific
field of interest
- Select appropriate models for the quantification of decision
attributes and utilities
- Quantify and model uncertainties related to the phases of the
decision process
- Perform decision analyses with knowledge of with a proper
selection of analyses tools
- Perform an in depth scientific literature review and to apply
literature findings
- Evaluate recent developments in the field of decision
analyses
Kursusindhold
Decision theory, Value of Information of information theory, basics
of utility theory, probabilistic information modelling and
prediction, structural reliability, decision analysis methods and
tools, decision trees, Bayesian networks, applications of decision
theory
This year’s focus: Condition Assessment of the Built Environment.
Litteraturhenvisninger
Foundations of decision theory:
Raiffa H., Schlaifer R., Applied Statistical decision Theory.
Wiley&Sons. Chichester. 2000. Part I and II.
Benjamin, J. R. and C. A. Cornell (1970). Probability, Statistics
and Decision for Civil Engineers, McGraw-Hill, New York. ISBN:
070045496.
This year focus literature:
Paik, J. K. and R. E. Melchers, Eds. (2014). Condition Assessment
of Aged Structures, Elsevier Science.
More literature to be announced at the beginning of the course.
Sidst opdateret
20. november, 2018
