Decision theory has received a tremendous research interest across the scientific disciplines. Decision theory investigates the mathematical and probabilistic relations and its quantitative representation in order optimize the utility of decisions. Decision analysis provides the decision maker an instrument that leads to an objective and transparent choice and justification of alternatives. The foundations of decision analysis in terms of utility theory were firstly defined in a set of axioms stated by Von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947). Raiffa and Schaifer (1961) introduced the decision theory providing rational and theoretical feasibility to each phase of the decision problem.
The course will cover theory and practice of decision making under uncertainty covering the foundations up to recent developments and applications in the fields of civil engineering, management and the ones which are represented by the course participants. This course is organized by the GDSI – Global Decision Support Initiative at DTU Management.

A student who has met the objectives of the course will be able to: En studerende, der fuldt ud har opfyldt kursets mål, vil kunne:

• Provide an overview about the foundations of decision theory
• Provide an overview about relevant literature on and application of decision theory
• Structure the decision problem for application in his/her specific field of interest
• Use decision trees and influence diagrams
• Assess and model utilities
• Quantify and model uncertainties related to the phases of the decision process
• Describe and apply multi attribute analysis
• Identify and aggregate the preferences of the decision maker

Decision theory, basics of utility theory, decision theory in different scientific disciplines, decision analysis methods and tools, Value of Information, applications of decision theory Raiffa H., Schlaifer R., Applied Statistical decision Theory. Wiley&Sons. Chichester. 2000. Part I and II. 02. januar, 2017