Decision theory has received a tremendous research interest across
the scientific disciplines. Decision theory investigates the
mathematical and probabilistic relations and its quantitative
representation in order optimize the utility of decisions. Decision
analysis provides the decision maker an instrument that leads to an
objective and transparent choice and justification of alternatives.
The foundations of decision analysis in terms of utility theory
were firstly defined in a set of axioms stated by Von Neumann and
Morgenstern (1947). Raiffa and Schaifer (1961) introduced the
decision theory providing rational and theoretical feasibility to
each phase of the decision problem.
The course will cover theory and practice of decision making under
uncertainty covering the foundations up to recent developments and
applications in the fields of civil engineering, management and the
ones which are represented by the course participants. This course
is organized by the GDSI – Global Decision Support Initiative at
DTU Management.
A student who has met the objectives of the course will be able
to:
Læringsmål:
En studerende, der fuldt ud har opfyldt kursets mål, vil kunne:
Provide an overview about the foundations of decision
theory
Provide an overview about relevant literature on and
application of decision theory
Structure the decision problem for application in his/her
specific field of interest
Use decision trees and influence diagrams
Assess and model utilities
Quantify and model uncertainties related to the phases of the
decision process
Describe and apply multi attribute analysis
Identify and aggregate the preferences of the decision
maker
Kursusindhold:
Decision theory, basics of utility theory, decision theory in
different scientific disciplines, decision analysis methods and
tools, Value of Information, applications of decision theory
Litteraturhenvisninger:
Raiffa H., Schlaifer R., Applied Statistical decision Theory.
Wiley&Sons. Chichester. 2000. Part I and II.
Mulighed for GRØN DYST deltagelse:
Kontakt underviseren for information om hvorvidt dette kursus giver
den studerende mulighed for at lave eller forberede et projekt som
kan deltage i DTUs studenterkonference om bæredygtighed,
klimateknologi og miljø (GRØN DYST). Se mere på http://www.groendyst.dtu.dk
